Predictive Factors of Extubation Failure in COVID-19 Mechanically Ventilated Patients.

Purpose: We investigated whether COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilation (MV) had a different extubation outcome compared to non-COVID-19 patients while identifying predictive factors of extubation failure in the former. Methods: A retrospective, single-center, and observational study was done on 216 COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) between March 2020 and March 2021, aged ≥ 18 years, in use of invasive MV for more than 24 h, which progressed to weaning. The primary outcome that was evaluated was extubation failure during ICU stay. A statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the association of patient characteristics with extubation outcome, and a Poisson regression model determined the predictive value. Results: Seventy-seven patients were extubated; the mean age was 57.2 years, 52.5% were male, and their mean APACHE II score at admission was 17.8. On average, MV duration until extubation was 8.7 ± 3.7 days, with 14.9 ± 10.1 days of ICU stay and 24.6 ± 14.0 days with COVID-19 symptoms. The rate of extubation failure (ie, the patient had to be reintubated during their ICU stay) was 22.1% (n = 17), while extubation was successful in 77.9% (n = 60) of cases. Failure was observed in only 7.8% of cases when evaluated 48 hours after extubation. The mean reintubation time was 4.28 days. After adjusting the analysis for age, sex, during of symptoms, days under MV, dialysis, and PaO2/FiO2 ratio, some parameters independently predicted extubation failure: age ≥ 66 years (APR = 5.12 [1.35-19.46]; p = 0.016), ≥ 31 days of symptoms (APR = 5.45 [0.48-62.19]; p = 0.016), and need for dialysis (APR = 5.10 [2.00-13.00]; p = 0.001), while a PaO2/FiO2 ratio >300 decreased the probability of extubation failure (APR = 0.14 [0.04-0.55]; p = 0.005). The presence of three predictors (ie, age ≥ 66 years, time of symptoms ≥ 31 days, need of dialysis, and PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 200) increased the risk of extubation failure by a factor of 23.0 (95% CI, 3.34-158.5). Conclusion: COVID-19 patients had an extubation failure risk that was almost three times higher than non-COVID-19 patients, with the extubation of the former being delayed compared to the latter. Furthermore, an age ≥ 66 years, time of symptoms ≥ 31 days, need of dialysis, and PaO2/FiO2 ratio > 200 were independent predictors for extubation failure, and the presence of three of these characteristics increased the risk of failure by a factor of 23.0.

Prediction of extubation outcome in mechanically ventilated patients: Development and validation of the Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS).

Despite the best efforts of intensive care units (ICUs) professionals, the extubation failure rates in mechanically ventilated patients remain in the range of 5%-30%. Extubation failure is associated with increased risk of death and longer ICU stay. This study aimed to identify respiratory and non-respiratory parameters predictive of extubation outcome, and to use these predictors to develop and validate an "Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS)" that could be used to predict likelihood of extubation success in patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Derivation cohort was composed by patients aged ≥18 years admitted to the ICU and receiving IMV through an endotracheal tube for >24 hours. The weaning process followed the established ICU protocol. Clinical signs and ventilator parameters of patients were recorded during IMV, in the end phase of weaning in pressure support ventilation (PSV) mode, with inspiratory pressure of 7 cm H2O over the PEEP (positive end expiratory pressure). Patients who tolerated this ventilation were submitted to spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) with T-tube for 30 minutes. Those who passed the SBT and a subsequent cuff-leak test were extubated. The primary outcome of this study was extubation success at 48 hours. Parameters that showed statistically significant association with extubation outcome were further investigated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to assess their predictive value. The area under the curve (AUC) values were used to select parameters for inclusion in the ExPreS. Univariable logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis were performed to evaluate the performance of ExPreS. Patients' inclusion and statistical analyses for the prospective validation cohort followed the same criteria used for the derivation cohort and the decision to extubate was based on the ExPreS result. In the derivation cohort, a total of 110 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 101 (91.8%) patients and failed in 9 (8.2%) patients. Rapid shallow-breathing index (RSBI) in SBT, dynamic lung compliance, duration of IMV, muscle strength, estimated GCS, hematocrit, and serum creatinine were significantly associated with extubation outcome. These parameters, along with another parameter-presence of neurologic comorbidity-were used to create the ExPreS. The AUC value for the ExPreS was 0.875, which was higher than the AUCs of the individual parameters. The total ExPreS can range from 0 to 100. ExPreS ≥59 points indicated high probability of success (OR = 23.07), while ExPreS ≤44 points indicated low probability of success (OR = 0.82). In the prospective validation cohort, 83 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 81 (97.6%) patients and failed in 2 (2.4%) patients. The AUC value for the ExPreS in this cohort was 0.971. The multiparameter score that we propose, ExPreS, shows good accuracy to predict extubation outcome in patients receiving IMV in the ICU. In the prospective validation, the use of ExPreS decreased the extubation failure rate from 8.2% to 2.4%, even in a cohort of more severe patients.

Predictive factors of weaning from mechanical ventilation and extubation outcome: A systematic review.

PURPOSE: To identify, describe and discuss the parameters used to predict weaning from mechanical ventilation and extubation outcomes. METHODS: Systematic review of scientific articles using four electronic databases: PubMed, Embase, PEDro and Cochrane Library. Search terms included "weaning", "extubation", "withdrawal" and "discontinuation", combined with "mechanical ventilation" and "predictive factors", "predictive parameters" and "predictors for success". In this study, we included original articles that presented predictive factors for weaning or extubation outcomes in adult patients and not restricted to a single disease. Articles not written in English were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included, with a total of 7929 patients and 56 different parameters related to weaning and extubation outcomes. Rapid Shallow Breathing Index (RSBI) was the most common predictor, discussed in 15 studies (2159 patients), followed by Age and Maximum Inspiratory Pressure in seven studies. The other 53 parameters were found in less than six studies. CONCLUSION: There are several parameters used to predict weaning and extubation outcomes. RSBI was the most frequently studied and seems to be an important measurement tool in deciding whether to wean/extubate a patient. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that weaning and extubation should be guided by several parameters, and not only to respiratory ones.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in adults living in Luzerna, Santa Catarina, in 2006.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in the adult population of Luzerna, in the state of Santa Catarina. METHODS: A cross-sectional study with adults of both genders aged 20 to 59 years (n = 411). The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, increased waist circumference, and smoking was estimated. Study variables were checked for frequency distribution, and a chi-square test for association was performed. RESULTS: The response rate was 85.9%. The following prevalences were found: hypertension: 14.7%; diabetes: 2.3%; dyslipidemia: 18.7%; obesity: 15.6%; increased waist circumference: 24.1%; and smoking: 15.6%. A total of 52.4% of the subjects had none of the risk factors; 22.4% had one risk factor, and 13.6%, 6.8%, and 4.9% had two, three, and four or more associated risk factors, respectively. CONCLUSION: The study sample showed low prevalence of hypertension and diabetes and less clustering of risk factors in the same individual, as compared with other data reported in the literature.

Prevalência de Fatores de risco cardiovascular em adultos de Luzerna, Santa Catarina, 2006 / Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in adults living in Luzerna, Santa Catarina, in 2006

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de fatores de risco cardiovasculares na população adulta do município de Luzerna, Santa Catarina. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal com adultos de 20 a 59 anos (n = 411), de ambos os sexos. Foi estimada a prevalência de hipertensão arterial sistêmica, diabetes, dislipidemia, obesidade, circunferência abdominal alterada e tabagismo. Realizou-se a distribuição de freqüência simples das variáveis de interesse e teste de associação do Qui-quadrado. RESULTADOS: A taxa de resposta foi igual a 85,9 por cento. As seguintes prevalências foram encontradas: hipertensão arterial sistêmica: 14,7 por cento; diabetes: 2,3 por cento; dislipidemia: 18,7 por cento; obesidade: 15,6 por cento; circunferência abdominal alterada: 24,1 por cento; e tabagismo: 15,6 por cento. Verificamos que 52,4 por cento dos indivíduos não possuíam nenhum dos fatores de risco; 22,4 por cento apresentavam um fator e 13,6 por cento, 6,8 por cento, e 4,9 por cento apresentavam dois, três e quatro ou mais fatores associados, respectivamente. CONCLUSÃO: A população analisada apresentou prevalências baixas de hipertensão, diabetes e menor agrupamento de fatores de risco em um mesmo indivíduo, quando comparada a outros dados relatados na literatura.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in the adult population of Luzerna, in the state of Santa Catarina. METHODS: A cross-sectional study with adults of both genders aged 20 to 59 years (n = 411). The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, increased waist circumference, and smoking was estimated. Study variables were checked for frequency distribution, and a chi-square test for association was performed. RESULTS: The response rate was 85.9 percent. The following prevalences were found: hypertension: 14.7 percent; diabetes: 2.3 percent; dyslipidemia: 18.7 percent; obesity: 15.6 percent; increased waist circumference: 24.1 percent; and smoking: 15.6 percent. A total of 52.4 percent of the subjects had none of the risk factors; 22.4 percent had one risk factor, and 13.6 percent, 6.8 percent, and 4.9 percent had two, three, and four or more associated risk factors, respectively. CONCLUSION: The study sample showed low prevalence of hypertension and diabetes and less clustering of risk factors in the same individual, as compared with other data reported in the literature.

Prospective assessment of different indices of cardiac risk for patients undergoing noncardiac surgeries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of 4 different indices of cardiac risk currently used for predicting perioperative cardiac complications. METHODS: We studied 119 patients at a university-affiliated hospital whose cardiac assessment had been required for noncardiac surgery. Predictive factors of high risk for perioperative cardiac complications were assessed through clinical history and physical examination, and the patients were followed up after surgery until the 4th postoperative day to assess the occurrence of cardiac events. All patients were classified according to 4 indices of cardiac risk: the Goldman risk-factor index, Detsky modified risk index, Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification and their compared accuracies, examining the areas under their respective receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Cardiac complications occurred in 16% of the patients. The areas under the ROC curves were equal for the Goldman risk-factor index, the Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification: 0.48 (SEM +/- 0.03). For the Detsky index, the value found was 0.38 (SEM +/- 0.03). This difference in the values was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The cardiac risk indices currently used did not show a better accuracy than that obtained randomly. None of the indices proved to be significantly better than the others. Studies to improve our ability to predict such complications are still required.

Avaliaçäo prosprectiva de diferentes índices de risco cardíaco para pacientes submetidos a cirurgias näo-cardíacas / Prospective assessment of different indices of cardiac risk for patients undergoing noncardiac surgeries

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of 4 different indices of cardiac risk currently used for predicting perioperative cardiac complications. METHODS: We studied 119 patients at a university-affiliated hospital whose cardiac assessment had been required for noncardiac surgery. Predictive factors of high risk for perioperative cardiac complications were assessed through clinical history and physical examination, and the patients were followed up after surgery until the 4th postoperative day to assess the occurrence of cardiac events. All patients were classified according to 4 indices of cardiac risk: the Goldman risk-factor index, Detsky modified risk index, Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification and their compared accuracies, examining the areas under their respective receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Cardiac complications occurred in 16 percent of the patients. The areas under the ROC curves were equal for the Goldman risk-factor index, the Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification: 0.48 (SEM ± 0.03). For the Detsky index, the value found was 0.38 (SEM ± 0.03). This difference in the values was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The cardiac risk indices currently used did not show a better accuracy than that obtained randomly. None of the indices proved to be significantly better than the others. Studies to improve our ability to predict such complications are still required